Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
